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https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/40791
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ArtigoDireito Autoral
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- IOC - Artigos de Periódicos [12642]
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APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL ON THE COVID-2019 EPIDEMIC DATASET
Autor(es)
Afiliação
University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome. Unit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology. Rome, Italy.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
University of Salerno. Department of Financial and Statistical Sciences. Salerno, Italy.
University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome. Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science. Rome, Italy.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
University of Salerno. Department of Financial and Statistical Sciences. Salerno, Italy.
University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome. Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science. Rome, Italy.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Resumo em Inglês
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has been recognized as a
global threat, and several studies are being conducted using
various mathematical models to predict the probable evolution of
this epidemic. These mathematical models based on various factors and analyses are subject to potential bias. Here, we propose a
simple econometric model that could be useful to predict the
spread of COVID-2019. We performed Auto Regressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) model prediction on the Johns Hopkins
epidemiological data to predict the epidemiological trend of the
prevalence and incidence of COVID-2019. For further comparison
or for future perspective, case definition and data collection have
to be maintained in real time.
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