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EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF ZIKA VIRUS TRANSMISSION IN AN URBAN SETTING
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/23185
Autor
Afiliación
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Université de Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. Institut de Biologie Computationnelle. Montpellier, France.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Centre of Post Graduation in Collective Health. Department of Health. Feira de Santana, BA, Brazil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Exeter. Centre for Mathematics and the Environment. Penryn, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Université de Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. Institut de Biologie Computationnelle. Montpellier, France.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Centre of Post Graduation in Collective Health. Department of Health. Feira de Santana, BA, Brazil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Exeter. Centre for Mathematics and the Environment. Penryn, United Kingdom.
Resumen en ingles
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting.
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