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https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/52141
PREDICTABILITY OF COVID-19 WORLDWIDE LETHALITY USING PERMUTATION-INFORMATION THEORY QUANTIFIERS
Lethality
Permutation entropy
Fisher information measure
Complexity hierarchy
Sliding window technique
Author
Affilliation
Federal Rural University of Pernambuco. Department of Economics and Informatics. Serra Talhada, PE, Brazil.
Federal Rural University of Pernambuco. Department of Statistics and Informatics. Recife, PE, Brazil.
Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Paraíba. Department of Biology. Campus Cabedelo, PB, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhães Institute. Department of Virology. Recife, PE, Brazil/
Federal Rural University of Pernambuco. Department of Statistics and Informatics. Recife, PE, Brazil.
Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Paraíba. Department of Biology. Campus Cabedelo, PB, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhães Institute. Department of Virology. Recife, PE, Brazil/
Abstract
This paper examines the predictability of COVID-19 worldwide lethality considering 43 countries. Based on the values inherent to Permutation entropy (Hs) and Fisher information measure (), we apply the Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), which allows us to quantify the disorder an evaluate randomness present in the time series of daily death cases related to COVID-19 in each country. We also use Hs and Fs to rank the COVID-19 lethality in these countries based on the complexity hierarchy. Our results suggest that the most proactive countries implemented measures such as facemasks, social distancing, quarantine, massive population testing, and hygienic (sanitary) orientations to limit the impacts of COVID-19, which implied lower entropy (higher predictability) to the COVID-19 lethality. In contrast, the most reactive countries implementing these measures depicted higher entropy (lower predictability) to the COVID-19 lethality. Given this, our findings shed light that these preventive measures are efficient to combat the COVID-19 lethality.
Keywords
COVID-19Lethality
Permutation entropy
Fisher information measure
Complexity hierarchy
Sliding window technique
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