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PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF HPV AND PAP TESTS IN SCREENING FOR CERVICAL CANCER OVER A THREE-YEAR FOLLOW-UP
Prevention and control
Mass screening
Papanicolaou
HPV
Cohort study
Affilliation
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Instituto Nacional de Câncer. Division of Clinical Research. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Instituto Nacional de Câncer. Division of Clinical Research. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Medicina Social. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract
Purpose: To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture, made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2þ). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results: A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2þ (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions: These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.
Keywords
Uterine cervical neoplasmPrevention and control
Mass screening
Papanicolaou
HPV
Cohort study
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