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https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/30693
MEASURING MOSQUITO-BORNE VIRAL SUITABILITY IN MYANMAR AND IMPLICATIONS FOR LOCAL ZIKA VIRUS TRANSMISSION
Author
Affilliation
University of Oxford. Imperial College. Department of Global Health and Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, UK.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. London, UK.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health. Myanmar-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Yangon. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health. Myanmar-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Yangon. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK / University of Oxford. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK / Mahidol University. Faculty of Tropical Medicine. Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit.Thailand / Harvard University. Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. Boston, USA.
Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports. Naypyidaw, Myanmar.
Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports. Naypyidaw, Myanmar.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. London, UK.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health. Myanmar-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Yangon. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health. Myanmar-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Yangon. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK / University of Oxford. Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health. Nuffield Department of Medicine. Oxford, UK / Mahidol University. Faculty of Tropical Medicine. Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit.Thailand / Harvard University. Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. Boston, USA.
Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports. Naypyidaw, Myanmar.
Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports. Naypyidaw, Myanmar.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Abstract
Introduction: In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatiotemporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete. Materials and Methods: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar. Results: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly
informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period
of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern
corridor of international borders with Thailand. Discussion: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.
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